There is no shortage of people doubting the numbers that China is publishing in regard to the Coronarivus. It’s almost as if they have taken it upon themselves to cast doubt no matter what number is printed.
“The numbers should be higher!” They scream.
Well, maybe they are but it may also be that every person who’s developing any sort of symptom is going to the hospital and that is causing a backlog and that in turn skews the numbers.
“They’re not telling the truth!” They retort.
And what truth would make you happy? Do you want pictures? Videos? And there are some on Weibo and Twitter. But do those even show the complete picture?
I would be the first to admit that going to a Chinese hospital would not be my first choice. Now imagining those same hospitals being overrun with feverish people all of whom may have a very contagious disease. No thanks! There could be a lineup out the door but the hospital and its staff can only process so many people at once.
One dunce on Twitter tried to make the point that “in the US we wouldn’t quarantine 40 million people” and I nearly lost it on this guy.
First, the US doesn’t have the same concentration of population and, moreover, doesn’t that speak to the measures being taken in this situation? To China’s ability to manage the situation? That China can and did lock down a city in an effort to control a highly infectious disease? But no, the Twitterverse must cast doubt on China, its leaders, and its people.
It’s like the guy was promoting the US’s efforts above all else. And yet, here in China, they have socialized health care. The US doesn’t. Small point, I guess.
It’s also become well known that there is a dearth of information coming from all corners of the internet. Most of the Western media is fixating on Weibo because it’s the easiest way to see and hear what “the people” are going through.
Let’s put it this way: if a somebody in a closed-off part of the world followed what’s on Twitter all day, what do you think their impression of, let’s say, democracy is would be? Or even the Western leaders? They’d probably think “That doesn’t seem very free. Seems like everybody hates each other over there.” And they wouldn’t be far wrong… if they stayed on Twitter.
But if they ventured overseas and took a walk around a few neighbourhoods, be them in Vancouver, Toronto, New York, London, Sydney, I’m sure their impression of what’s going on overseas would be very different.
And yet the naysayers continue to doubt China’s numbers.
I can say that, after living in the country for a while, I can almost vouch for those numbers for two reasons (bearing in mind I’d be the first to say I don’t trust most numbers published by anyone!):
First, most students, if you asked what their major is or was at university, will more than likely respond either with “accounting” or with something finance-related. That is, they’re both number-related majors and require some attention to detail or, at the very least, an ability to choose the numbers that they need. And this happens in the West too. How often do we see “official” number subsequently revised some months later? Oops! But that’s never checked.
Second, as a follow up to accounting practices, China isn’t blind and it isn’t dumb to what other countries do, especially in regard to those countries’ own accounting practices. All that is to say, it would be unwise to think that China and its number-crunchers haven’t studied what other countries have done to massage their numbers. GAAP anyone? Sure, they can be generally accepted, but it doesn’t mean that they can’t be selective. After all, Chinese students make up a large portion of “overseas students” in other countries, some have come back to work here. Just my first person view on that issue.
So, doubt the numbers all you like but at the end of the day, this is a real virus, it has been mostly contained in the WuHan / HuBei region, has mostly affected Chinese people in more ways than one, and its effects are rippling all over the world.
The key difference between this outbreak and other outbreaks that is that it’s hitting a country that is a major player in the world economy who has just faced off against its biggest customer in a trade spat. No one blockaded the US when they had their SARS outbreak, so too with Canada. Yet China’s feeling the brunt of other countries’ bans.
Maybe there is something larger in play here that we’re not seeing just yet but, as of right now, it does look as though the world is reacting rather harshly towards China.
With all that being said, despite the fact that the number of those infected has gone up, the number recovering has gone up while the number of confirmed cases is starting to plateau. This is a good sign. As the weather starts to warm up here in China we’ll more than likely see the virus slow down even further and, ultimately, be brought under control. Here are the numbers as they stand on February 12th, 2020:
I want to draw your attention to the graph at the bottom right of the image. There are two ways to look at it: actual and logarithmic.
The “actual” chart shows a flattening of confirmed cases while making the number of recoveries look rather insignificant:
Meanwhile, the “logarithmic” that makes things look even worse!
Note, however, that all three lines, Mainland Confirmed, Total Recovered, and Other Locations Confirmed, all seem to be even-ing off. This is a good sign.
A lot of things remain shuttered here in Beijing but the city is still at least half functional. While some places have opened up, many haven’t and everywhere now has thermometers, masks, disinfectant and anti-bacterial gel. I’m seeing workers clean things like menus and elevator buttons that otherwise would probably never have been cleaned. I was warned that I shouldn’t even touch the elevator buttons and instead use a cotton swab or tissue to press the buttons. I think that’s a little much.
And, finally, as work slowly begins to recommence, the air has now been filled with smog once again. The AQI has topped 200+ over the last few days, a fact made just a bit more disturbing with the knowledge that they are cremating a lot of the bodies in WuHan.
On a more cheerful note, it is getting warmer outside and, as many people tried on February 11th or 12th, I also tried the broomstick challenge and was able to get it to stand on its own. Though I doubt the story behind it, it was fun to try to get it to stand up.
And with that, stay safe and wash your hands!